Berkeley Formal Demography Workshop 2023

The 2023 Berkeley Workshop in Formal Demography (BWFD) was held in person and virtually from June 5 – 9, 2023. The theme of the 2023 BWFD workshop was fertility, including contemporary topics such as COVID-19 and abortion policy. The lectures, exercises, and research talks covered some of the central concepts of formal demography, with a special focus on the mathematics of fertility, reproduction and other demographic outcomes, to understand fertility dynamics and the implications of recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Dobbs decision.

Day 1 — Population dynamics and stable population theory

  • Lecture, Part 1, Informal intro to formal demography, growth and non-growth
  • Lecture, Part 2, Reproductive ratios, r, and the TFR
  • Lecture, Part 3, The Leslie Matrix and projection (with exercises)

Day 2 — Mortality modeling

  • Lecture, Part 1, The consequences of fixed rates (with exercises)
  • Lecture, Part 2, Comparative statics and mean ages (with exercises)
  • Lecture, Part 3, Adding one more, and loose ends (with exercises)

Day 3 — Models of fertility change

  • Lecture, Part 1, Ryder’s Cohort-Period Translation (with exercises)
  • Lecture, Part 2, Tempo effects from a period and cohort perspective (w/ exercises)
  • Lecture, Part 3, Lee’s moving target model, with extensions to Covid-19 and abortion restrictions (with exercises)

Day 4  – Research Talks

  • Tomáš Sobotka: “Pandemic roller-coaster? Birth trends in higher-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic”
  • Alison Gemmill: “Demographic outcomes after a population shock: an interrupted time series approach”
  • James Carey: “Congressional symmetry: Application of the stationary population identity to replacement populations of the U.S. House and Senate, 1789 to 2020”
  • Ron Lee: “Modeling fertility over age and time as striving toward a goal”
  • Leslie Root: “Conditional parity-specific fertility rates for the U.S.: New measurements for state-level policy assessment”

Day 5 — Research Talks

  • Amanda Stevenson: “Relative risk of death due to abortion compared with remaining pregnant: a multiple decrement life table approach”
  • Tom Cassidy: “The formal demography of peak population”
  • Panel: Ron Lee, Ken Wachter, Jane Menken: “Formal demography in the 21st century”

The Berkeley Workshop in Formal Demography is funded by the NICHD R25HD083136 and sponsored by the Berkeley Population Center.