The Berkeley Forum on Aging and the Global Economy (BerkeleyAGE), a new initiative at UC Berkeley designed to forecast the economic implications of global population trends in order to help corporations, governments, nonprofits, industry groups, and the media understand and navigate challenges in a new era of unprecedented population aging, has released its first report, Population Aging and the Global Economy: Weakening Demographic Tailwinds Reduce Economic Growth. Among the key findings: in the coming decades, demographic forces will weaken substantially as a driver of global economic growth, in contrast to the past 25 years when they accounted for almost half of the gains. This will lead to a 20 percent dip in the world’s economic potential.
The study also predicts significant differences in impact between nations. High-income European and Asian nations with populations aging the fastest will face more severe economic impacts. The United States, benefiting from somewhat higher birth rates and immigration, fares somewhat better. Middle- and low-income nations will continue to benefit from strong growth among their younger populations, but the change will be somewhat less potent as population growth slows.
For the full press release, see: (http://populationsciences.berkeley.edu/file/berkeleyagepress-release060517).